QR · stage 2 project

Estimate and challenge one claim

About 6 hours. Deliver: A short statistical memo with code, uncertainty and a counterexample.

1. Freeze a date-paired quoted-change or forecast-loss question with explicit bps or percentage-point units.
2. Compare a simple interval with a block-resampled interval; record the dependence assumption.
3. Construct a counterexample or changed window that weakens the original conclusion.